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MAC Women’s Basketball Tournament probabilities

March 9, 2011

OK, now that EMU’s men’s basketball season is over and we’re on Ramsey Watch, let’s talk about women’s basketball. As we did yesterday for the men, we’ll take a look at log5 probabilities for each team still in the MAC tournament, which I have painstakingly calculated for you this morning.

Seed Team Semi Final Champ
1 Toledo 77.10% 45.35% 19.02%
8 Akron 22.90% 6.97% 1.39%
4 Kent State 57.89% 29.42% 10.92%
5 EMU 42.11% 18.26% 5.59%
3 Central Michigan 64.88% 18.90% 8.78%
6 Buffalo 35.12% 6.79% 2.22%
2 Bowling Green 93.58% 72.94% 51.85%
10 Ohio 6.42% 1.37% 0.23%

What we see here is that Bowling Green is an overwhelming favorite to win their side of the bracket and a solid favorite to win the whole thing. Toledo is a solid favorite to win the other side of the bracket, and of the second-round underdogs, EMU has by far the best chance to win today.

Even if the Eagles lose today, they’ll probably be playing in a post-season tournament. Women’s basketball rankings and ratings can be hard to come by, but with 144 post-season spots (64 in the NCAA Tournament, 64 in the WNIT, 16 in the Women’s Basketball Invitational) and 346 Division I teams, 41% of women’s basketball teams will keep playing past this weekend. One of the few women’s college basketball ranking sites I’ve found, RealTimeRPI, lists EMU at #122, which suggests that another win or two probably gets them into the WNIT, but if not, they should be a lock for the WBI. I’ve got to believe that a MAC team with a 20-11 record is in the top 41%.

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