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MAC Women’s Basketball Tournament probabilities

March 9, 2011
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OK, now that EMU’s men’s basketball season is over and we’re on Ramsey Watch, let’s talk about women’s basketball. As we did yesterday for the men, we’ll take a look at log5 probabilities for each team still in the MAC tournament, which I have painstakingly calculated for you this morning.

Seed Team Semi Final Champ
1 Toledo 77.10% 45.35% 19.02%
8 Akron 22.90% 6.97% 1.39%
4 Kent State 57.89% 29.42% 10.92%
5 EMU 42.11% 18.26% 5.59%
3 Central Michigan 64.88% 18.90% 8.78%
6 Buffalo 35.12% 6.79% 2.22%
2 Bowling Green 93.58% 72.94% 51.85%
10 Ohio 6.42% 1.37% 0.23%

What we see here is that Bowling Green is an overwhelming favorite to win their side of the bracket and a solid favorite to win the whole thing. Toledo is a solid favorite to win the other side of the bracket, and of the second-round underdogs, EMU has by far the best chance to win today.

Even if the Eagles lose today, they’ll probably be playing in a post-season tournament. Women’s basketball rankings and ratings can be hard to come by, but with 144 post-season spots (64 in the NCAA Tournament, 64 in the WNIT, 16 in the Women’s Basketball Invitational) and 346 Division I teams, 41% of women’s basketball teams will keep playing past this weekend. One of the few women’s college basketball ranking sites I’ve found, RealTimeRPI, lists EMU at #122, which suggests that another win or two probably gets them into the WNIT, but if not, they should be a lock for the WBI. I’ve got to believe that a MAC team with a 20-11 record is in the top 41%.

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